Silflay Hraka

Shows up at the Times, of all places.

Imminent predictions of doomsday have been rife throughout human history. The unwritten subtext is that humanity deserves to be destroyed. This predilection with our self-destruction is just another manifestation of humanity’s hubris. It is the delusion we are so powerful we can cause the destruction of our entire species. In the past, we envisioned ourselves literally at the center of the universe. Now we see the unfamiliar and rapidly changing world we have created and are convinced that this will so offend the “natural order” that surely it will be our demise. We still have not quite grasped the fact that we are just not that powerful, but creating a better life, at least on a small scale, is something we have proven we can do.

116610

update: 171465

Over at Climate Science

Hendrik Tennekes, retired Director of Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, former Professor of Aeronautical Engineering at the Pennsylvania State University and internationally recognized expert in atmospheric boundary layer processes.
…
Seventeen years ago, I wrote a column for Weather magazine, expressing my concerns about the lack of honesty, integrity and humility of many climate scientists. “I worry about the arrogance of scientists who claim they can help solve the climate problem, provided their research receives massive increases in funding”, reads one line from my text. … This was early 1990. It is 2007 now, and I want to ring the alarm bell again. There is a difference, though: then I was worried, now I am angry. I am angry about the Climate Doomsday hype that politicians and scientists engage in. I am angry at Al Gore, I am angry at the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists for resetting its Doomsday clock, I am angry at Lord Martin Rees for using the full weight of the Royal Society in support of the Doomsday hype, I am angry at Paul Crutzen for his speculations about yet another technological fix, I am angry at the staff of IPCC for their preoccupation with carbon dioxide emissions, and I am angry at Jim Hansen for his efforts to sell a Greenland Ice Sheet Meltdown Catastrophe.
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I am more than a little bit worried about IPCC’s preoccupation with CO2. The scientific rationale behind this choice is obvious. Sophisticated climate models have been running for twenty years now. It has become evident that these models cannot be made to agree on anything except a possible relation between greenhouse gases and a slight increase in globally averaged temperatures. The number of knobs that can be twiddled in the parameterization of the radiation budget is not all that large. Seemingly realistic results can be achieved without much intellectual effort. I agree with IPCC that there is a likely link between fossil fuel consumption and increased temperatures. But this is where the much proclaimed consensus ends. Just one example: the models do not include feedbacks between changing farming and forest harvesting practices and the atmospheric circulation. Partly for that reason, they cannot seem to agree on precipitation patterns.
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I want to lobby for decency, modesty, honesty, integrity and balance in climate research. I hope and pray we lose our obsession with climate forecasting. Climate simulations are best seen as sensitivity experiments, not as tools for policy makers. I said it in 1990 and I am saying it now: the constraints imposed by the planetary ecosystem require continuous adjustment and permanent adaptation. Predictive skills are of secondary importance. We should stop our support for the preoccupation with greenhouse gases our politicians indulge in. Global energy policy is their business, not ours. We should not allow politicians to use fake doomsday projections as a cover-up for their real intentions.

There’s a lot more.

Okay, I’m a bad Carnival host. Because of my class last night, I didn’t get to the Carnival. Hopefully it will be up today. Or tomorrow at the latest. I promise.

Saudi Relative of Bin Laden Killed (via rantburg)

Mysterious death of Iran’s top scientist

Two data points are never enough to draw a conclusion from, but they are sufficient enough to remind me to look for a third.

I laughed till I cried, and now the wife is looking at me strangely.

I’m gonna volunteer to be an official toad-listener for the State of North Carolina. Those guys get all the chicks, you know.

We just launched a new fishing forecast on Weather.com at www.weather.com/fishing. I helped.

The site gives you the best times of day to fish in any given zip code or on any given lake in the U.S. based on solar and lunar positioning. You can also upload photos of your latest catch. Check it out..

After I discovered numerous mistakes in the wikipedia page for Louisburg, (like where Soupy Sales was born, plus his name was misspelled), I cleaned it up and rearranged a few things. Those who also have roots there should add whatever you think relevant.

Note to Emigres: Your exultations of joy over having escaped are probably not relevant.

A Guide For Men: Buy a large, expensive bait-casting reel, spool it with expensive braided line and 100-lb test mono, hook up a large chunk of bait, and kayak the rig 200 yards offshore. Wait an hour, reel in, discover that your bait is gone. Repeat all day long. Go home empty-handed.

A Guide For Women: Go jogging on the beach with your infant, spot something in a tidal pool and drag it up on the beach.

Several construction workers at a beachside project saw what was happening and they ran down to the surf.

“One guy was trying to pull him farther up on the beach when it twisted and hit him in the head, hurting him. So, I grabbed the tail and pulled him farther up the beach.”

I would not want to be the injured worker come the next day.

“Lookout, Sal! There’s a goldfish on the loose! Think you’ll need first aid if he comes after you?”