Silflay Hraka

Yet another military Hraka reader, Sgt. Franz, writes in to point out this recent defense of the French military at StrategyPage.

I have to admire his chutzpah, but it’s uphill work and he doesn’t really pull it off in my eye. (Acting like the Dragoon landings in South France absolutely depended on the Free French, f’rinstance. That’s just silly. A troop of handicapped boyscouts could’ve pulled that one off.)

I especially like this passage;

“Since World War II, France has taken part in the 1956 Suez War, which was a military victory. France only backed off due to political pressure from the United States and USSR. France also did not lose the Algerian War of Independence from 1954-1962 on any battlefield, but instead in terms of politics. The only real loss was the Indochina War, which was highlighted by the Battle of Dien Bien Phu.”

Nothing like insisting that if it weren’t for the damn politicians France would have been victorious. Might as well claim that France would have carried the day in 1940 had her representatives not signed the June 22nd armistice.

Using the Charles De Gaulle as a positive example of French power is also pretty daring, given this earlier StrategyPage take on the vessel.

The new French nuclear carrier “Charles de Gaulle” has suffered from a seemingly endless string of problems since it was first conceived in 1986. The 40,000 ton ship has cost over four billion dollars so far and is slower than the steam powered carrier it replaced. Flaws in the “de Gaulle” have led it to using the propellers from it predecessor, the “Foch,” because the ones built for “de Gaulle” never worked right and the propeller manufacturer went out of business in 1999. Worse, the nuclear reactor installation was done poorly, exposing the engine crew to five times the allowable annual dose of radiation. There were also problems with the design of the deck, making it impossible to operate the E-2 radar aircraft that are essential to defending the ship and controlling offensive operations. Many other key components of the ship did not work correctly, including several key electronic systems. The carrier has been under constant repair and modification. The “de Gaulle” took eleven years to build (1988-99) and was not ready for service until late 2000. It’s been downhill ever since.

That doesn’t sound much like a “reasonably capable military.” Not that I’m biased or anything.

Never underestimate the power of sucking up.

Sire,

We just announced our project this morning, in a Guest Post at www.legalunderground.com where we will be premiering Blawg Review on April 11. I hope you like our article, and appreciate how we’ve taken every opportunity to promote readership of all scion of the BigWig, especially the business bloggers. After all, most lawyers are capitalists too, and many of the strongest supporters of the business Carnivals, Glenn Reynolds and Stephen Bainbridge and many others are, in fact, blawgers. Hopefully, we’ll earn their support for Blawg Review, as well as yours.
——
In other Carnie-related business, Gullyborg is still looking for submissions for this Friday’s gun-related Carnival of Cordite, and the indefatigable Coturnix points out yet another scion or ours, the Carnival of the NBA.

In December of 2003 Kansas University professor Townsend Peterson published a map of Africa that predicted where future outbreaks of Ebola and Marburg might occur, based on the natural environment of areas that were know to have previously suffered from outbreaks of those diseases. The map was somewhat controversial, as it indicated areas that had not previously experienced filovirus outbreaks were at risk.

The predictive map he developed, published in the January 2004 issue of “Emerging Infectious Diseases,” was based on climatic and animal data from the areas where Marburg has been found. He said many scientists questioned whether the map accurately predicted that the possible Marburg zone could stretch west into Angola.

“We got a little flack for that,” he said.

As tragic as this outbreak is, the fact that the map accurately predicted where it might occur is good news, in that the pool of possible hosts for the Marburg virus is reduced down to an almost manageable size though that assumes that the various African filovirii are actually spread via animal contact rather than by animal behavior.

Most of the other outbreaks have been traced to caves or mines, Townsend said. If that remains the case, scientists can narrow the list of possible animal suspects to between 50 and 80.

Meanwhile, other African nations have belatedly begun to respond to the outbreak, instituting border checks and quarantines; an exceedingly proper response to events, given the apparent Angolan mismanagement of the crisis.

Meanwhile, Quiala Godi, the number two health official in the northern Angolan town of Uige — the epicentre of the virus — was critical of Luanda’s response.

“These are people who simply talk. She didn’t even go to the hospital. She is scared of dying. The entire team sent by the health ministry has left leaving only international experts on the spot.”

Whether it ends up being due to SARS, Avian flu or some other germ entirely, the next worldwide pandemic will almost certainly be caused in part by similarly inept actions on the part of a Third World government.

It probably won’t be Marburg, as historically filovirus outbreaks kill their victims so quickly that they are unable to spread very far–though this latest outbreak is running contrary to the known storyline in a number of ways;

1. Age of the Victims – Far more children than adults have been infected. Typically one would expect an equal infection rate across all age groups.

2. Death Rate – No one is known to have survived infection with the virus in the current outbreak. That’s a 100% death rate, more deadly than Ebola, from a virus typically not expected to kill at that rate, though the death rate may be a reflection of the poor level of care available in Angola rather than the virulence of the virus.

Fatality rates for outbreaks of Marburg VHF have ranged from approximately 25 percent to 80 percent; mortality has been higher in outbreaks in which effective case management was lacking.

The outbreak may also be due to a new, deadlier variant of Marburg, which, like Ebola, has a number of different strains.

3. Incubation Period – Though this may be a symptom of journalistic confusion caused by the quarantine period those exposed to the virus are sentenced to rather than an actual observed trend, the incubation period for the Marburg virus is being reported as 21 days. Previously, 5 to 7 days was presumed to be the length of Marburg’s incubation period.

Based on the confused situation in Angola, all of the above should be taken with a grain of salt. It may be that the current outbreak adheres in every particular to the pattern laid down by previous outbreaks. It will likely be months before we know one way or another.

Background: Marburg in Angola, Hunting The Elusive Marburg, Mapping Ebola

Pied kingfisher – Ceryle rudis

LTC Bob has had great luck when it comes to the Kingfishers of Iraq, capturing both of the species one would would expect to see in the area numerous times. We’ve already covered the White Breasted Kingfisher, though I may replace the original photos at that post soon, given the quality of some of LTC Bob’s more recent shots. The other species of kingfisher in Iraq is the Pied Kingfisher, one of the most common species on kingfisher in the world, and one noted for its plumage, as when it comes to kingfishers, vivid colors are the norm rather than the exception.

“In several respects the Pied Kingfisher has scored firsts in the evolution of fishing within the Alcedinidae/Cerylidae” Kingfishers, Bee-Eaters & Rollers tells us.

Well, tells me, I suppose, as it’s not that likely that many of you happen to have a copy open at the moment. You’ll have to take my word for it.

“Like other kingfishers, it fishes by diving from a perch, but also regularly hunts by hovering, plunging down to catch its prey like a miniature gannet.
…
Hover-hunting releases it from the reliance of all other kingfishers on shore-line with their perching places. Pied Kingfishers can and do hunt out to sea and far offshore in Africa’s great lakes. Another first is its ability to handle prey away from a perch: this kingfisher has been know to catch tow fish in one dive, to eat a crab at sea, and often to swallow fish less than 2 cm long on the wing, without first having to return to firm perching-place to beat them.”

Of course, there’s no rule against hunting from a convenient perch, either. As you might have suspected, the picture above shows the idiosyncratic hover. Others have captured it as well, though it’s a tough enough shot that most end up looking like this rather than like the ones above. Though other kingfishers do exhibit the hovering behavior, the Pied is thought to be the largest one able to sucessfully employ the technique while hunting. Considering that the much smaller hummingbirds are thought to burn upwards of 200 calories per gram of body weight per hour during hovering, one would think that the Pied Kingfisher–averaging 80 grams in weight as an adult–must be achingly close to the size limit for that behavior, but in fact several varieties of Kestrel–typically twice the size of our Pied–also employ the hovering technique while hunting, though they have to face into the wind to do so.

Previously: The Black-Winged Stilt

Next: The Rook

Also, be sure to check out LTC Bob’s and Major Ed’s Birds of Iraq photopages, updated with pictures that for space reasons I can’t display here.

CNN.com – Terri Schiavo has died – Mar 31, 2005