Medicare is projected to go broke in 2019.
I’ll be 54. I’ll be 77 when Social Security is projected to go kaput in 2042.
Not that I’ve ever expected either to be around by the time I need them.
Social Security was passed by Congress in 1935, when an American?s average life expectancy was 61.7 years. 30 years later, when Medicare was first established, life expectancy was 69.7. It’s now 77.4 years.
Had the age at which a person qualifies for either of the programs been tied to life expectancy when the programs were first passed, one’s first Social Security checks wouldn’t begin arriving nowadays until one’s 8Oth birthday. People would qualify for Medicare at the age of 72.
Now obviously any retroactive attempt to raise the qualification ages to what they should be now based on the life expectancy of the 30’s is bound to fail, but there’s no logical reason why both programs can’t be set up to function that way in the future, though whether the political will to do so is available is another question entirely.
American life expectancy in 2019 is expected to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 80 years, which would raise the Medicare qualification age to 68–hardly a crippling burden for someone expecting another 12 years of life, and it would save…call it whatever 2019’s equivalent of what $750 billion is worth today. (Medicare outlays in 2004 are expected to be $250 million–I just multiplied the number by three. Yes, it almost certainly misses low.)
American life expectancy in 2042? 82.2 years, which would raise the retirement and Social Security ages to 70 from today’s already too low 65.* That saves the equivalent of 2.5 trillion in today’s dollars–not an amount to sneeze at no matter when it is.
Tying existent elderly benefits to a ever-higher life expectancy doesn’t seem that controversial to me, but then again, I’m not the AARP, which presumably can be counted on to oppose even theoretical reductions in the amount of money paid out to its members.
*My parents may not feel that this is so–but then again they are both double dipping, which is evidence in favor of my argument, I should think.