Archive for October 2nd, 2002
The Torch Isn’t Out
New Jersey Supreme Court Rules Torricelli Can Be Replaced
First, let’s go get the reactions.
Instapundit
Volokh
Kausfiles
Quasipundit
Just one minute
Man Without Qualities
The Light of Reason
Silent Running
Ok, far be it from me to lecture my betters, but ya’ll are missing the point. Toricelli is not going to be replaced by a 78 year old man on the New Jersey ballot. I don’t care what the New York Times says. He’s too old, and that would hurt the Democratic ticket in N.J. just as much as Toricelli has.
The Democrats have a plan, have had a plan since before the Torch announced his “withdrawal” Monday, and are rubbing their hands in glee right now, because it’s working without a hitch.
The New Jersey Supremes are in the Democratic pocket, and the Democrats know it. Yes, there are 2 Republicans on the bench, but a Republican in New Jersey is a Democrat almost everywhere else. The decision today was expected, and the appeal to the Supreme Court that the Republicans will file tomorrow is also expected. The New Jersey decision looks loony, so the Supreme Supremes will overrule the Garden State Supremes, say 20 days before the election. And then the shit will hit the fan.
Anyone else remember the nationwide bitterness the last time the Supreme Court overruled a state supreme court on the matter of a local election law? That wound may have a scab on it, but it’s nowhere near healed. You can tell people to get over it till the cows come home, but just because they stop yelling doesn’t mean everything is all hunky-dory now.
Two things will happen when the Supremes overrule. One, the Democratic base is going to get really energized really quickly. Most elections, and especially off-year elections, are decided by turnout, and this will turn out the party faithful in droves. Second, Bob Toricelli will have had a week or two or three where he isn’t being attacked by Doug Forrester. Just as importantly, Forrester won’t have a target to shoot at, so his campaign loses focus. When Toricelli jumps back into the race after the Supreme Court bitchslaps their state brethren, the focus will no longer be on him, but on the “Republican Supreme Court trying to steal a second national election.” That will play in New Jersey. That will play all over the U.S., because the media is congenitally unable to let go of an angle as juicy as that. It gives the Democrats an issue that trumps Iraq, and they will not let it go.
Predictions:
Toricelli wins handily. 58% to 40%
The Democrats keep the Senate, and retake the House.
Or
My meds get upped.
Remember, you heard it here first.
Same Story, Different Facts.
The Durham Herald - Man, 20, shot to death at Durham apartment
The Raleigh New & Observer - Robbers kill 18-year-old in townhouse
Someone above has gotten a fact wrong. If you can’t rely on the media to get the basics correct, you cannot rely on the media. Not that this is a surprise to anyone.
I only noticed this because the poor murdered kid lived right across the street from the townhouse we lived in up until last year. We moved out after the city strong-armed the neighborhood association into accepting rent-subsidized tenants from the notorious public housing development being torn down on the other side of Durham. It wasn’t the only reason we moved, but it certainly spurred our heels. It’s still described as safe;
Police records show few crimes there. Since Jan. 1, 2001, there have been reports of three burglaries, one larceny, two larcenies of motor vehicle parts and one incident of vandalism at the townhouse complex, which stretches across the street to 1227 Seaton Road.
but what is doesn’t say is that in the years I lived there previous to that date, there was one domestic disturbance, and one car break in*. It also doesn’t mention that it’s located in one of the hottest housing markets in the Triangle, yet has several empty townhouses that have stood empty for months. The original owners of the townhouses are mostly retired, but they’re being inundated by the subsidized tenants.
It’s a bad situation. Certainly I don’t think we should keep poor people and their kids in the ghetto, but when they move the ghetto comes with them. It’s not as if their relationships with undesirable elements cease. They’re still in the same city, sometimes still in the same school district, and they’ve all got cars. The only solution I can think of is pervasive monitoring of any quasi-public space, and personal monitoring of private space. There’s just not enough cops to go around. In the end, I don’t see any alternative to the Transparent Society.
*I’m checking this with the Durham PD, which I did not know I could do until I called them to see how the reporter did it. I’m relying on the tenant grapevine for that statement, which makes me nervous, even though it is normally a pretty reliable source.
A Trick For Husbands
This article shows how men can pretend to listen to their wives while still continuing to do what they want. It is pure genius.
Carnival of the Vanities, #2
I was talking to a another blogger about traffic the other day. It doesn’t matter which blogger. We all talk about traffic, and most of us have the same lament. “My traffic’s too small.” Never mind the ubiquitous penis ads. If spammers really wanted to make money, we would get e-mail in our in boxes advertising magic gels and devices to make our unique visitor numbers go up.
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The only secret I know is quantity. Post something everyday, and someone will come to read it. Posting something twice a day is even better. Post as often as you can. Eventually, quality grows out of the sheer mass of quantity like roses from beds of manure. The collected correspondence of Mark Twain runs to nearly five thousand pages. Not all of it is going to be the literary equivalent of Huckleberry Finn. Out of those 5000 pages there are bound to be a few where Twain whines about the typewriter, or curses a few politicians, or talks about the cute thing his daughter did that day. I’ll bet you at some point he even complains about how small his readership is.
So post, and post often. It’s the only way to get to Carnegie Hall. No, you’re still not likely to be the next Mark Twain. But if you practice, you might be the next Bret Harte. Myself, I’m aiming for Booth Tarkington.
This Week’s Roses
Art
Ipse Dixit - It Should Be Shocking
Where Worlds Collide - Twelfth Night
Humor
Solonor’s Ink Well - The Art of Being Frugal
South Knox Bubba - I Made the Switch
Silflay Hraka - Birds of the Middle East
International
Glenn Frazier - Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran and the U.S.
Silent Running - Think of the Children
Life
Sour Mash With A Twist - Tomorrow will be an amazing day
Northwest Notes - Youth regained through Rollerblading
a small victory - she’s a pinball wizard Such a supple wrist!
Natural History
Fragments ~ from Floyd - Tiny Links in a Delicate Chain and Turtle Encounters of the Third Kind Looks like the Intimidator to me
Weck up to Thees - Scientific Progress Goes Boink
The Net
File 13’s Amish Tech Support - Amber Alerts
Parenting
Blogatelle - Spare The Lecture, Spoil The Child?
Politics
Heretical Ideas - Bulworth, Ralph Nader, and the DNC
Whigging Out - Long ago and Far away
skippy the bush kangaroo - let’s hope they never disappear skippy
Philosoblog - Your Degree in BS
Pop goes the Culture, ‘cuz the Culture goes Pop!
The Kitchen Cabinet - Superman
Ripping the Media a New One
Sine Qua Non Pundit - The Scourge of Richard Cohen, Vol. LV
The Road to Surfdom - PRESS ADMITS THEY are IDIOTS EASILY BLUFFED by the IDIOTS in the WHITE HOUSE.
Poet and Peasant - Nastygram to ABC
The Carnival of the Vanities is published every Wednesday at Silflay Hraka and Blog Critics. Information on how to join the Carnival is available here.